Call them the epic fails of technology. In 2013, a few technologies will fade
into an abyss, swirling around and clinging for a last gasp of air before
eventually dying. For IT executives looking to make contingency plans and
approve budgets, these are the technologies to avoid.
Top network and IT industry stories of 2012
1. Legacy Applications
Report: Gartner Says SaaS Now Replacing, Extending Legacy Apps
That means not having to run-or maintain-legacy apps in a data center. While you
might still depend on legacy apps, you won't run them the same way or manage
them in your own data centers.
2. Mobile Applications
The brightest thinkers in technology have predicted the demise of apps for
some time. Doug Pepper with InterWest Partners, venture capital firm, says apps
will transform into intelligent agents that know about our preferences,
location-even the time of day and our schedule.
Analysis:
Mobile App Standoff: Web App vs. Native App
We won't need a weather app anymore, or even a widget. Instead, the phone will
customize the home screen to feed only the data we need based on our own
customizations. That means not having to manage hundreds of apps.
3. Traditional Desktops
This is an interesting paradigm shift that might require some adjustment in our
thinking. Today, your desktop is the place you store apps and picture of your
kids. Over the past few years, though, thin-computing devices such as the
Google
Chromebox have shown how old-fashioned a desktop is. (The
Chromebox
has only a browser. There is no desktop.)
News:
Windows 8 Brings Zero 'Pop' to Consumer PC Sales
ScienceLogic's Piriano says the desktop will die in 2013 as more companies move
to a virtual desktop in the cloud-benefiting from centralized control in the
process.
4. BlackBerry Smartphones
Predications of the impending doom of the BlackBerry smartphone have swirled for
more than a year. Constant delays in new operating system upgrades, misfires
with tablets and new form-factors (anyone like a touchscreen phone with a
thumbpad?) and management turnover are only part of the problem.
Analysis:
New BlackBerry 10 Devices Impress, But Can They Save RIM?
The real issue: Employees want a consumer phone they can use at work. We're
connected 24x7 now, so having a dedicate business phone that won't play Angry
Birds doesn't make sense any more.
5. Windows Phones
Android and the iPhone have won, and in 2013, Microsoft will finally decide to
give up on the Windows phone. As much as the platform matches up with Windows 8
and the Surface tablets, consumer interest is not nearly as fanatical. Analyst
firm
IDC expects Windows Phone to land an 11 percent market share by 2016, while
Ovum suggests a 13 percent share by 2017, but there's little sign that
Android and iPhone users are ready to switch.
Blog:
Windows Phone to Pass BlackBerry, but Does It Matter?
Of the 40 people I met at a recent tech conference, a few had an Android, the
rest had an iPhone, and not one person had a Windows phone. If early adopters
skip the platform, who will stick around?
6. Private Branch Exchange (PBX) Systems
The desktop phone in your cubicle might be on its last leg. Adam Hartung with
consultancy Spark Partners says the big technology fail of 2013 will be the
traditional corporate PBX system-those desk phones that tie into a corporate
data center.
Case Study:
Implementing VoIP: Lessons Learned Killing PBX
The problem is that escalating costs and maintenance fees look less and less
attractive to companies, especially when employees have started bringing their
own gadgets to work and using them exclusively. "Employees are happy to bring
their own phone," Hartung says. "Companies only need to know how to collect and
manage the connections."
7. Fax Machines
The fax machine will finally sputter out and die next year, says Keval Desai, a
partner at InterWest Partners. We all
know faxing is a sign of another age when our data flowed over standard phone
lines. New services such as Adobe
EchoSign offer a way for lawyers, insurance agents and your real estate
agent to obtain a verifiable digital signature and transmit legal contracts with
full authentication.
Related:
Fax Machine Among Obsolete Technology to Kill-in 2010
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